Enemy Of The People Essays - An Enemy Of The People, Epistemology

Enemy Of The People How Home-Schooling Really Got Started People have often been known to find comfort in numbers and to therefore enter into social contracts with others living around them. People feel safer in groups and so they choose to give up certain rights and privileges for protection from their peers. This inevitably leads to domination of man over man. People choose leaders to make their decisions for them, or they do as the majority says. It is very rare for people to make rational decisions and carry to them to their full potential once they have entered into a social contract. The desire to follow the crowd which is created by this social setting is deplorable and is therefore the main object of critism in Henrick Ibsens play An Enemy of the People. The characters in this play all live together in a town ruled by what is known as the compact majority. This majority is led by a group of town officials who come up with plans and policies on which the people may vote. This system offers no chance for the freedom of individuals. Beginning with a speech discussing . . . the colossal stupidity of the authorities, Doctor Stockmann deconstructs this appalling social system. This speech criticizes the lack of intelligence the authorities have shown and the need for their destruction. If freedom is to exist for individuals, the first step must be to do away with worthless officials and authorities that force the people to make a choice from the narrow selection they provide. What is right in one situation may not hold true in another, but the authorities force all people to live under the same laws with the same punishments instead of allowing for diversity. However, Stockmann does not stop there. In fact, he says that the authorities are not the main problem, but that instead The most dangerous enemy of truth and freedom among us is the compact majority. This majority follows its leaders blindly without ever giving thought to any alternative outside of the shielded path on which they are directed. People that do that are . . . so very far from distinction. These people have given up their won right to think and have doomed themselves to lives that can never meet the full potential of the human experience. Stockmann ends his speech with a proposal . . . to raise a revolution against the lie that the majority has the monopoly of truth. This lie that people are born into believing must be destroyed for the sake of the individual. If people continue only to do as they are told, and if people continue to tell their children to believe unquestioningly the truths others make for them, then individual rights and rational and creative thoughts will cease to exist. It is for these reasons that Stockmann makes his stand, that he proposes such a revolution. Only once Stockmanns truths can be heard and analyzed can people begin to know what they were intended for. The idea that the majority destroys itself is so obvious that it is often over-looked. People refuse to make their own decisions about anything and instead choose to follow what others believe or what others say is right. People lose rights they never knew they had when they do things like that. In An Enemy of the People, Stockmann is the first to realize that he has his own mind, and that people who do not know they have their own mind are not really living at all. He is the revolutionary who allows people to produce their own thoughts and ideas and to have their own opinions about what others say. He is the one that sets each individual person free from the horror of a blind and mindless community of mass thought. Book Reports

How to Talk Sports in French

How to Talk Sports in French Are you that fan of European sports who gets up in the wee hours to watch games in France? If you just love sports in general or simply want to know more about talking sports in French, weve got you covered. We have the names of the sports, the verbs to use with each, and the terms for  players (usually with both masculine and feminine forms), equipment, and playing fields. Its a long, useful list, so buckle up. Note that we discuss exceptionally popular French sports like soccer, tennis, and cycling elsewhere on their own pages. Many of the words below are linked to audio files. Simply click on the link to hear the correct pronunciation and then repeat it a few times to commit it to memory. Names of Sports (Noms de sports) Note that, in many instances, the French and English words are nearly identical. archery le tir l'arc baseball le base-ball basketball (specific terms below) le basket biking or cycling le cyclisme boxing la boxe diving la plongà ©e fishing la pà ªche football le football amà ©ricain golf (specific terms below) le golf (ice) hockey (specific terms below) le hockey (sur glace) jogging le jogging sailing la voile skating le patinage rollerskating le patin roulettes or le skating skiing (specific terms below) le ski cross-country skiing le ski de randonnà ©e or le ski de fond downhill skiing le ski de descente or le ski de piste water skiing le ski nautique soccer le foot(ball) swimming la natation tennis le tennis volleyball le volley(ball) wrestling la lutte The French Verbs Used With Sports In French, playing or doing sports is normally expressed with  jouer au  or  faire. Sports That Use Jouer au 1. Jouer au  (to play): Just add the name of the sport after the verb, like this: to play golf   jouer au golfto play hockey   jouer au hockey to play... jouer au... baseball base-ball basketball basket soccer foot(ball) football football amà ©ricain golf golf hockey hockey tennis tennis volleyball volley(ball) Sports That Use Faire 2.  Faire  (to do):  The verb  is usually followed by de article noun, like this: to swim   faire de la natationto do archery    faire du tir  Ã‚  larc ​There are exceptions where just the noun is used, without the partitive and article. For example: to hike faire  une randonnà ©e Some sports also have their own verb, which is a one-word verb form of the noun. Those are listed in the right-hand column below. For example: to wrestle   faire de la lutte  or  lutter Notice that le golf can use either jouer au or faire and is on both  lists. to do... faire... or this to box de la boxe boxer to ride a horse du cheval to bike du cyclisme or monter sur bicyclette rouler to golf du golf to jog du jogging to wrestle de la lutte lutter to swim de la natation nager to skate du patin(age) patiner to inline skate du patin roulettes or du skating to dive de la plongà ©e plonger to ski du ski skier to downhill ski du ski de descente or du ski de piste to cross country ski du ski de randonnà ©e or du ski de fond to water ski du ski nautique to shoot archery du tir l'arc to sail de la voile to hike une randonnà ©e Anomaly: la  Pà ªche Uses Aller But,  la  pà ªche uses neither of these verbs and goes on a separate list with aller, as in  aller   la pà ªche (to go fishing), or its used with its own verb  pà ªcher (to fish). to go... aller... or this to go fishing la pà ªche pà ªcher Basketball (Le Basket) If you like basketball, youll enjoy learning essential basketball terms.  You can practice these words while playing or watching your teams. Learning a language is like sports: The more you practice, the better you get. Basketball  Team basketball team à ©quipe de basket basketball player basketteur (m) or basktteuse (f) guard arrià ¨re offensive player attaquant jumper sauteur Basketball Equipment   equipment matà ©riel basketball ballon de basket court terrain de jeu basket panier opponent's basket panier adverse rim, ring anneau backboard panneau Basketball Action to catch the ball attraper le ballon to block bloquer to dribble dribbler to steal the ball intercepter le ballon to handle the ball manier le ballon to guard a player marquer un joueur to pass passer Golf (Le Golf) You could practice this vocabulary the next time you hit the links. Golf Players golfer joueur de golf or golfeur (m)joeuse de golf or golfeuse (f) foursome quatuor The Golf Course golf course terrain / parcours de golf greens fee droit de jeu driving range terrain d'exercice fairway allà ©e grass bunker fosse d'herbe sand trap fosse de sable waste bunker fosse naturelle water hazard obstacle d'eau green vert hole trou Golf Equipment   equipment matà ©riel golf bag sac de golf caddie cadet(te) cart chariot, voiturette de golf golf ball balle de golf ball marker repà ¨re golf glove gant de golf set of clubs jeu de bà ¢tons de golf golf club club, crosse, canne (de golf) wood bois iron fer driver bois n ° 1 pitching wedge cocheur d'allà ©e sand wedge cocheur de sable putter fer droit Golf Action to golf faire du golf or jouer au golf tee tà © tee marker jalon de dà ©part handicap handicap golf stroke coup de golf swing à ©lan backswing montà ©e half swing demi-à ©lan chip approche roulà © pitch approche lobà © divot motte de gazon The Golf Score score card carte de pointage par normale birdie oiselet bogey boguey double bogey boguey double eagle aigle double eagle albatros hole in one trou d'un coup The Golf Ball ball trajectory trajectoire de balle hook crochet de gauche slice crochet de droite draw là ©ger crochet de gauche fade là ©ger crochet de droite Hockey (Le Hockey) Ice hockey, a popular sport in French-speaking Canada and elsewhere, has a special set of terms. Notice that when we speak of hockey players, French-speaking Canadians tend to use a different word than the French do. Both terms will be understood in both countries. Hockey Players hockey player hockeyeur/euse (France)joueur/euse de hockey (Canada) goalie gardien de but opponent adversaire The Hockey Rink   rink patinoire goal but or cage goal crease territoire de but Hockey Equipment equipment matà ©riel hockey stick crosse de hockey puck palet helmet casque protecteur face mask protecteur facial glove gant skate patin Hockey Action to play hockey jouer au hockey to check mettre en à ©chec to clear the puck dà ©gager le palet to score a goal marquer un but to shoot lancer or tirer Skiing (Le Ski) Skiing is another popular sport in many French-speaking countries. Types of Skiing and Skiers to ski faire du ski or skier cross-country skiing ski de fond downhill skiing ski de descente or ski aval cross-country skier skieur de fond or fondeur downhill skier descendeur forerunner ouvreur de piste freestyle libre classical classique jumping saut downhill descente giant slalom slalom gà ©ant slalom slalom super-G super gà ©ant Skiing Equipment equipment matà ©riel hat bonnet headband serre-tà ªte or bandeau goggles lunettes glove gant ski pole bà ¢ton de ski skis skis boot chaussure coverboot surchaussure binding fixation On the Hill ski course parcours de ski trail piste marked course piste balisà ©e hill tremplin or piste de saut start platform plate-forme de dà ©part length of the trail longueur de la piste flag fanion or drapeau jump tremplin mogul bosse finish time temps l'arrivà ©e control point poste de contrà ´le gate porte

Port state control Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Port state control - Essay Example Generally speaking, governments possess neither the inspection expertise required to uphold international standards nor the worldwide network of surveyors needed to ensure compliance. Contracting for the assistance of private actors indicates an effort to comply with international standards. But it might be asked whether some of the states attempting to pursue a survey and compliance regime on their own have an adequate infrastructure to fulfill their treaty obligations. The IMO presses on and multilateral efforts to improve the overall performance of flag states will undoubtedly bear some fruit. Nevertheless, it appears that effective global governance of shipping safety in the foreseeable future will rely heavily on the actions of responsible port states, working unilaterally and in groups, and on the industry's reactions to port state control efforts. (IMO, 295) The right of the port state to take action against a vessel when it violates port state regulations established in accordance with internationally agreed-upon standards is well established in international law.

Voter Turmont vs Ballot Initiatives Research Paper

Voter Turmont vs Ballot Initiatives - Research Paper Example Whether or not ballot initiatives have an effect on voter turnout in the United States is a contested question. Voter turnout referrers to the number of people who take part in a voting forum like election, referendum or other gatherings. Voter turnout exhibits some hearty pattern that explains why the number of voters varies from one place to another. According to most researches done on voter turnout, the main factor that affects voter turnouts is institutional variables (Jackman, 1987). Ballot initiative on the other side is referred to a process of whereby the people are authorized to enact or refute legislations at the polls hence superseding the legislative body. An initiative is a type of election facilitated by the people with the aim of resolving issues that elected leaders fail to raise or attend contrary to public desires. In 1962, Powell’s book, ‘Contemporary Democracies’ was the first book to be published on the study of voter turnout. His 1986 articl e, ‘American Political Science Review Articles’ established that countries with nationally competitive districts whose parties and members usually have enticements to persuade voters to turn up at the polls, or those that had strong party-group association such as churches and unions were likely to have high voter turnout (Powell, 1986, p 21-22). In his conclusion, Powell said that the turnout in America is inhibited by its institutional context, and the main emphasis, which is also the most powerful variable, is on party-group associations. Voter turnout in the past years has been on a declining trend in the united State, with only a few exceptions. Although some sources from defenders of participatory, normative theorists and to some extent journalist have indicated that ballot measures that are initiated by citizens are likely to increase voter turnout, other researches refute the assertions, despite use of direct democracy having been embraced in the United States f or the last 25 years. Whereas those who prefer direct democracy dispute that citizen participation, efficacy and confidence in the government can only be increased by permitting citizens to vote directly on policy issues, those who oppose say the process will only have minimal change, and threatens to deteriorate state legislatures and replace representative democracy (Broder, 2000). Most of the conclusions based on the comparative cross-national research are vigorous and as a result, there lacks a compelling foundation over the connection between voter turnout and ballot initiatives. Institutional variables in the end get to be overstated. Use of the initiative process for over 26 years in 50 states has been linked to higher turnout rates. The initiative process is evidently assisting in increasing the number of turnout in electoral participation. For example, in the 1990’s the discrepancy in turnout rates between initiative and non initiative states has been on the rise ove r time, estimated at 3% to 4.5% higher in presidential elections and between 7% to 9% higher in midterm elections (Tolbert Grummel & Smith, 2001). The rate of ballot initiative measures is increasing in the United States, with an increase on the use of initiatives to decide policy matters. In states such as California, Mississippi, Colorado,

Nucor Corp Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Nucor Corp - Essay Example The invisible competition is potential in large companies vertically integrating into steel production. This is the competitor environment in which Nucor Corp. strives to maintain an advantageous market position. Facing three categories of competitive tension, Nucor must formulate goals, objectives and strategies accordingly. Nucor Corp. can mitigate some of the competitive tension by acquiring other steel manufacturing companies. In that case the organizational culture of the company must be ready for the social-demographic tension resulting from unionization in the foreign companies. However acquisitions enable the company to get a technological edge as it integrates the operations of the acquired companies into its own operational framework. This is one of the key success factors of operating in the steel industry since the technology is constantly evolving while Nucor is not investing in R&D. Therefore acquisitions provide an effective means of maintaining the company’s te chnological base at the latest standards. There is economic tension in the form of plummeting prices of steel, scrap metal and iron ore. Increased environmental regulation is also adding to the cost of operations. Political regulations such as tariff withdrawal by the World Trade Organization have increased the competitive tension as the industry has been more exposed to foreign competition. The uncertain economic environment is a favorable factor in terms of enabling Nucor to acquire competitors who do not have the resource capabilities to sustain the economic difficulties. The result of acquisitions is further consolidation of the industry leading to reduced competitive pressure. The weak dollar also makes the company more competitive internationally. The marketplace is highly competitive. The competitive tension is increased by the economic uncertainty having repercussions on pricing, demand and access to capital. The companies operating in this environment can address the reperc ussions by achieving economies of scale. However all companies have similar capacities, thereby enhancing the competitive tension. The tension also results from the three buckets of competitors: immediate, impending and invisible. This competitive environment is the result of a highly fragmented industry. The highly fragmented global steel market place leads to an unattractive industry structure. Porter’s 5 forces analysis shows that the industry has high buyer power and competitive rivalry. The supplier power is medium. The high buyer power results from a commodity market in which the suppliers are price takers. Therefore buyers are able to pit suppliers against each other as they are price takers. Companies operating in the commodity market are unable to differentiate their products. As a result industry rivalry is high. It is also important to consider supplier power since the decreasing availability of scrap metal raises their price. As a result the suppliers are gaining greater bargaining power. Suppliers also present invisible competition since they have the ability to vertically integrate into steel manufacturing. Taking these factors into consideration, Nucor Corp. has to formulate strategies which are customized to an industry which has high buyer power and rivalry and medium supplier power. These are the three most important factors to be taken into consideration in determining the attractiveness of the steel industry environment.

Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay

Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay Forecasting is supposed to be one of the oldest management activities. In biblical times there were frequent allusions to clairvoyants and prophets. Nowadays it is becoming increasingly necessary for companies to make forecasts; those that do not give the prospect to their competitors a clear advantage. No forecasting is a main cause of most of todays business failures. In the past, goods could be sold on company reputation alone and forecasting was not too important. In todays more competitive times, sentiment does not apply, and firms that do not challenge their selves to make an accurate forecast on which to base their future production will find it increasingly difficult to survive (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Forecasting is important for many aspects of the modern business. Organisations make plans which become effective at some point in the future so they need information about prevailing circumstances (Waters, 2003). This information must be forecast; but unfortunately forecasting is a difficult situation and despite its importance, progress in many areas has been limited (Waters, 2003). According to literature forecasting can be defined: Forecasting is predicting, projecting, or estimating some future event or condition which is outside an organizations control and provides a basis for managerial planning (Golden J. et.al, 1994, p.33) Forecasting is generally used to predict or describe what will happen (for example to sales demand, cash flow, or employment levels) given a set of circumstances or assumptions (Waddell D., et.al, 1994, p.41) Forecasting is a projection into the future of expected demand, given a stated set of environmental conditions (Mentzer J.T. Moon M.A., 2005, p.9) 2.3 Importance of Forecasting Todays globalized business market, the systematic move from push to pull manufacturing, and the rise in consumer oriented economies, have led to a much more complex forecasting world (Lapide, 2006). Forecasters are being asked to create plans for expanding geographies, increased numbers of sales channels, and broader, more diverse, and shorter life cycle product lines. This complexity means that markets are more dynamic and the business environment is not stable (Lapide, 2006). The importance of forecasting is finding in a great range of planning and decision making circumstances. It is essential to mention those perspectives that forecasting can become a useful tool for management in many departments of an organization. In marketing, a great amount of decisions can be improved significantly by connect them with dependable forecasts of market size and market characteristics (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Having this in mind for example, a company that produces and sells electrical devices should be able to forecast what the demand will be for each of its products by geographic region and type of consumer (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). In production an essential need of forecasting is the area of product demand. This relates with the both prediction of volumes mix so as the organization can plan its production schedule and organize appropriate its inventories (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Another area that the recent years have linked a lot with forecasting is finance and accounting. These departments must forecast cash flows and the rates at which various expenses and revenues will occur if they are to maintain company liquidity and operating efficiiency (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Due to the nowadays difficult economic conditions that the whole business markets face up the importance of forecasting has become more imperative than ever. Marketing practitioners regard forecasting as an important part of their jobs. For example, in Dalrymple (1975), 93% of the companies sampled pointed out that sales forecasting was one of the most critical aspects, or a very important aspect of their companys success. Also Jobber, Hooley and Sanderson (1985), in a survey of 353 marketing directors from British textile firms, found that sales forecasting was the most common of nine activities on which they reported (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). Moreover Dalrymple (1987), in a survey among 134 US companies, found that 99% prepared formal forecasts when they developed written marketing plans. Winklhofer et. al (1996) notes some basic factors that the importance of forecasting has become widely essential for the organizations in recent years: The increasing complexity of organizations and their environments led to difficulties for decision makers to take account of all the factors relating to the future growth of the organization into account; Organizations have moved towards more systematic decision making that contains explicit justifications for individual actions, and formalized forecasting is one way that these actions can be maintained; The development of the forecasting methods has enables not only forecasting experts but also managers to become familiar with these techniques. 2.4 Forecasting Methods Moving on, the next step is to present and to analyze the forecasting methods. Forecasting methods can be divided in three basic categories: a) Quantitative or Statistical b) Qualitative or Judgmental c) Time Horizon 2.5 Quantitative or Statistical Quantitative Forecasts base on mathematical models and suppose that past data and other relevant factors can be combined into reliable predictions of the future (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000). In preparing a quantitative forecast it should begin with a number of observed values, past data, or observations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). These observations may represent many things, from the actual number of units sold to the cost of producing each unit to the number of people employed (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Quantitative Forecasts can be divided into two alternative options; projective and casual. 2.5.1 Projective Methods These methods rely on historical data and they are known as time-series. These can be used to discover systematic, seasonal deviations in the data, cyclical patterns, trends and growth rates of the trends (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). Time-series analyze the data to find out which patterns exist and then develop a suitable forecast equation (Mentzer T. and Mark A.M., 2005). The main forecasting techniques included in this category are moving averages, exponential smoothing and a model for trend and seasonality. A short review of these methods follows. Moving Average Moving average takes account of the calculation of the average of the sample and then forecast the next period having as a driver this average. This is a proper method in order to predict from a series of data which has shown regular historical patterns and where there is a long series. Also they are suitable of predicting seasonal sales but they cant predict accurate rapid modifications in markets. Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing is the most popular and cost effective of the statistical methods. It bases on the principle that the latest data should be weighted more heavily and smoothers out cyclical variations to forecast the trend (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). It relies on the idea that as data gets older it becomes less relevant and should be given less weight (Waters, 2003). In order to make this calculation it is needed the old average, the actual new demand and a weighting factor (Wild, 2002). Model for seasonality and trend The techniques that have been discussed so far have assumed that the basic underlying pattern of the past sales data has been horizontal. Waters (2003) proposes a model for use under some specific circumstances such as seasonality and trend in the demand. Demand can be divided in separate parts and more specifically: a) underlying value, which characterizes the main demand that should be adjusted for seasonality and trend b) trend which is the change in demand, c) seasonality which is the cyclical variation around the trend and finally d) noise which is a random effect. 2.5.2 Casual Methods The core assumption behind the casual methods is to use refined and specific information concerning variables to develop a correlation between a lead event and the event being forecasted (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). The idea based on the hypothesis that there is a discernible relationship between the forecasted variable and a measurable independent variable (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). A typical example of casual methods is regression method. Regression Method By using a regression method the demand forecast is based on a relationship of one event to another. The use of regression method requires a large amount of data for the forecast variable and the casual variables. 2.6 Qualitative or Judgmental Qualitative Forecasts (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000) are based on opinions, knowledge and skills rather than more formal analysis. They are used where there is no historical data. These types of forecasts are one of the simplest and widely used forecasting approaches available (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Its core idea rely on the corporation of the executives by discussing and deciding as a group what their best estimate for is for the item to be forecast (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). The most important judgmental methods are Delphi, Market Surveys and Historical Analogy. Delphi In the Delphi method at least two rounds of forecasts are obtained independently from a small group of experts. This group can be between five and twenty experienced and suitable experts and poll them for their forecasts and reasons (Armstrong J.S, et.al, 2005). The experts never actually meet and typically do not know who the other panel members are (Wisniewski, 2006). After each round, the experts forecasts summed up and reported back to the experts (Armstrong J.S., 2006). The cycle can go on from a second to a third round and so on if appropriate (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Typically the Delphi method is used to produce a narrow range of forecasts rather than a single view of the future (Wisniewski, 2006). Market surveys Logic dictates that the most sensible approach to preparing a sales forecast might be ask ones customers (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). It is a simple matter to ask customers what their likely purchases will be for the period it is desired to forecast. So companies make surveys in order to collect these data from customers and then by analysing their answers produce the forecasts. This method is best used when the number of users is small, when they are likely to state their purchasing intention with reasonable accuracy and when the forecaster knows the extent of competition in the market-place and the companys likely share of the total market (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985, p. 131). Historical Analogy Under limited circumstances it may be possible to produce forecasts based on observed patterns of some similar variable in the past (Wisniewski, 2006).The concept of this method based on the product life-cycle which assumes that the most of the products follow the reasonable stages of introduction, growth, maturity, decline (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985) as the figure 2.1 shows. The product life-cycle theory has been applied in many industries and has proved useful in identifying future strategies for products and services (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Maturity Sales/Profit Decline Growth Introduction Time Figure 2.1: Product life cycle Source: (Wisniewski M. (2006), Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers (4th Edition), Prentice Hall, p. 295) 2.7 Time Horizon Forecasts can be classified in terms of time span they cover in the future. The basic types of time horizon forecasts are long-term, medium-term and short-term (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.161). The long-term forecasts cover a time span of 3-10 years and they are used in the analysis of standard commitments and can be characterized as strategic decisions. The medium-term forecasts are made for one year to support production planning in the face of highly cyclical demand and can be characterized as tactical decisions. Finally short-term forecasts cover a time of one week to three months and they are used to control manufacturing levels and stock replenishment in the face of short demand variation. Short-term forecasts are concerned for operational decisions (Korpela J. et.al, 1996; Waters, 2003). 2.8 Forecast Error Inaccurate forecasts are the single most common problem that every company faces. Nowadays due to the rise of the technology there are many events or areas that can be predicted such as 1) seasonality, 2) average relationships, 3) average cyclical patterns, 4) emerging technological trends and their influence and many other factors. But on the other hand because future is something unknown there are always situations that are very difficult to predict such as 1) special events, 2) competitive actions or reactions, 3) sales of new products, 4) the start and depth of recessions, 5) changes in trends, 6) changes in relationships or attitudes, 7) and technological innovations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Golden J. et.al, 1994, points out three ways-aspects that can reduce the forecast error by taking into consideration the followings: Knowing the market: take the pulse of those who will actually buy and use the product. Be independent. Deflate forecasts for a margin of safety. It is generally known that every forecaster knows that he/she should measure forecast errors. Most of them do it however only for the reason to see how well they are doing. The important is to measure forecasting errors for two primary reasons: to learn from them and to manage demand risk (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding learning from them, forecasts errors should be analyzed to access where errors are too high or have gotten to large so that more focus can be placed in those areas for improvement (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding managing for demand risk, users of the forecast need to know how accurate they are in order to leverage risk management strategies designed to mitigate the risk (Lapide L., 2007). 2.9 Forecasting methods criteria When carrying out market demand forecasts, one often confronts with the problem of the inappropriate selection of a forecast method. It should be noted that in every actual forecast situation methods have their advantages and disadvantages, hence, it is important to define and analyse forecast method selection criteria (Pilinkiene, 2008). In order to select the appropriate method several criteria should be considered such as a) forecast accuracy degree, b) time span, c) amount of necessary initial data, d) forecast costs, e) result implementation and applicability level (Pilinkiene, 2008). According to Cox and Mentzer study (Table 2.1) (1984;cited by Mentzer and Kahn,1995) identified accuracy (92%) and credibility (92%) as top criteria for choosing a forecast technique. Criteria Sample Size % Important Accuracy 205 92 Credibility 206 92 Customer Service Performance 199 77 Ease of Use 206 75 Inventory Turns 198 55 Amount of Data Required 205 46 Cost 205 41 Return on Investment 199 35 Table 2.1: Top criteria for choosing a forecast technique (Source: Mentzer J.T Kahn K.B., (1995) Forecasting Technique Familiarity, Satisfaction, Usage, and Application, Journal of Forecasting, vol.14, p.474) Moreover another important research made by Yokum and Armstrong (1995) (Table 2.2) which based in a survey among 322 experts in forecasting identified the most important criteria. There were 94 researchers, 55 educators, 133 practitioners (i.e. forecast preparers) and 40 decision makers (i.e. forecast users). From this study accuracy was the dominant criterion -rated 6.2 on average-, next was timeliness in providing forecasts, and cost savings resulting from improved decisions. After that five other criteria rated based on ease such as ease of use. Mean agreement rating Question Avg. Decision Maker (DM) Practitioner (PR) Educator (ED) Researcher (RS) Accuracy 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.09 6.39*DM,PR,ED Timeliness in providing forecasts 5.89 5.97 5.92 5.82 5.87 Cost savings resulting from improved decisions 5.75 5.97 5.62 5.66 5.89 Ease of interpretation 5.69 5.82 5.67 5.89 5.54 Flexibility 5.58 5.85*PR,ED,RS 5.63 5.35 5.54 Ease in using available data 5.54 5.79 5.44 5.52 5.59 Ease of use 5.54 5.84*PR,RS 5.39 5.77*PR, RS 5.47 Ease of implementation 5.41 5.80*PR,ED,RS 5.36 5.55 5.24 Incorporating judgmental input 5.11 5.15 5.19 5.12 4.98 Reliability of confidence int. 4.90 5.05 4.81 4.70 5.09 Development cost(computer, human resources) 4.86 5.10 4.83 5.02 4.70 Maintenance cost (data storage, modifications) 4.73 4.72 4.73 4.75 4.71 Theoretical relevance 4.40 3.72 4.43*DM 4.20*DM 4.81*DM *denotes significantly higher ratings (p Table 2.2: Importance of criteria in selecting a forecasting technique (scale- 1 unimportant to 7 important) (Source: Yokum, J. J.S. Armstrong (1995) Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 11, p. 593) 2.10 Planning Practices for Improving Forecasting After the analysis of the available forecasting methods and their selection criteria the next step is to propose some planning practices that can improve forecasting, It is known that these practices are not necessary best fit with every company and before someone wants to implement them an evaluation of companys core practices should be made. That can help a company to identify its advantages and disadvantages in order to survive in todays tough market environment and with the help of these practices can become the leader of the market. The complexity and uncertainty that exist in the todays business environment creates many problems to every function of a company. This also affects supply chain management which its initial target is to meet the needs of the final consumer by supplying the right product at the right place, time and price (Helms et.al, 2000). This complexity elevates forecasting accuracy and effectiveness as an elusive target. Many companies are, however, making significant, improvements by using an approach that supports and facilitates the concept of supply chain management by improving the forecasting practices (Helms et.al, 2000). So the planning practices that can improve forecasting are: a) Sales and Operation Planning (SOP) and b) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR). These practices will be analyzed and explained in the following subchapters. 2.10.1 Sales and Operation Planning****FRAMEWORKS*** Sales and Operating Planning (SOP), is a cross-functional process that brings together teams of individuals on a routine basis to plan for where businesses are going on a operational/tactical basis and is considered a supply chain best practice (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005; Lapide, 2006). Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) has emerged as a powerful decision-making tool for executives and managers (Wallace et.al, 2005). It is a set of decision making process that 1) balances demand and supply, 2) links a companys day-to-day operations with its strategic and business plans and 3) integrates operational planning with financial planning (Wallace et.al, 2005). ***ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½ÃƒÅ½-ΜΑ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ 1,2,3** Each team member brings to the process a specific perspective during the development of supply and demand plans/forecasts (Lapide, 2006). Each SOP team member may have to generate, review and revise demand forecasts that reflect the aspects of a business with which they are most familiar (Lapide, 2006). SOP, leverages Supply-Demand Matching, an operating principle that involves balancing supply and demand over time in order to satisfy demand, optimize operations, and minimize wasted resources (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). Under an SOP process, a companys sales and marketing plans are aligned with the plans of operations, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement in order to jointly optimize future demand-supply operations. It is a process from which the final constrained and unconstrained demand forecasts are developed and then used to drive operational planning activities (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). ***Ά¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½-ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤, ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽÂ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¨ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©*** The major input for the implementation of SP is the behavioural change of the people inside the organisation and is regarded to be as the most difficult element (Wallace, 2010). Other elements such as software tools, data and the specifics of the process may be essential, but theyre of far less significance. Taking this as a standard the point is that a successful implementation of SOP is a matter of change management. The amount of change is significant. Its not a matter of doing something better; its about doing things differently-to be better (Wallace, 2010). In order to understand SOP process in is important to present and explain the four fundamentals which are demand and supply, volume and mix figure 2.2. Volume (How much?, Rates, Product families) Supply Demand Mix (Which ones?, Timing/Sequence, Products/SKUs) Figure 2.2: The Four Fundamentals Source: Wallace T. Stahl B., (2005), Sales Operation Planning- The Next Generation, pp.6) SOP is a tool to balance demand and supply at the volume level. It deals with rates of sales and production, aggregate inventories and backlogs. It is typically expressed in product families or other aggregate groupings; it answers the question how much. At the mix level the matter is about with which individual products run first, second, third and which customer orders will ship when. It answers the question which ones giving the details (Wallace et.al, 2005). Another important mission for SOP is to tie together the companys operational plans with its financial plans. The financial plans represent, critically essential evident, to deliver X amount of revenue and profit dollars for a specific period of the year. These commitments are made to some very important people such as the corporate office, the board of the directors, the Wall Street and ultimately to owners of the business: the stockholders (Wallace et.al, 2005). On the other hand, the operational plans focus on things like procurement, production, sales, inventories and so on. When these operational plans are not aligned with the business and financial plans, there is a detach. (Wallace et.al, 2005). 2.10.1.1 Sales and Operation Planning Benefits Implementing SOP in a business the benefits will be essential and immediate. These benefits can be categorized into two groups, the hard benefits and the soft benefits. As far as it concerns the hard benefits these can be the following (Wallace et.al, 2005): Higher Customer Service, by developing the ability to ship on time and complete at a higher rate than before SOP. Lower Finished Goods Inventories, by doing a better job of shipping to customers with lower, not higher, inventories. Shorter Customer Lead Times, through an enhanced ability to manage the customer order backlog and keep it at a low level. More Stable Production Rates, due to the ability to predict the future shifts in customer demand sooner and thus make smaller adjustments to production rates. Higher Productivity, by avoiding extreme fluctuations in production volumes with their attendant layoffs and rehiring. Moving on to the soft benefits these include (Wallace et.al, 2005): Enhanced Teamwork, at both the executive and operating management levels, resulting from the holistic view of the business that SOP provides. Better Decisions, by decreasing effort and time. SOP offers, increases effectiveness which improves the quality and the structure of decisions on demand and supply issues. Greater Accountability and Control, due to the backward and forward visibility that SOP provides. 2.10.1.2 Examples of Implementing Sales and Operation Planning a) Coca-Cola Midi (CCM): In France there is a manufacturing regional plant that produces -over 700 SKUs, encompassing 79,000 tons- soft drinks concentrates and juice beverages bases for Europe, Asia and Africa. SOP was implemented at CCM when the plant was started in 1991. SOP is for CCM the backbone for planning, manufacturing and supply-chain activities. SOP enables disciplined and formalized communications across the company, and between all the suppliers, partners and customers. Continuous improvement in customer service, inventory management, obsolete products, and freight costs were some of SOP benefits after the implementation. (www.partnersforexcellence.com). b) ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΒΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ºÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÂ  ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Å"ΜΑ*** 2.10.2 Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment (CPFR) Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), is a revolutionary business practices where in trading partners use technology and a standard set of business processes for Internet-based collaboration on forecasts and plans for replenishment (KJR Consulting, 2002). CPFR can be categorized into these collaborative business practices that enabled trading partners to have visibility into ones other critical demand, order forecasts and promotional forecasts. The objective of CPFR is to improve efficiencies across the extended supply chain, reducing inventories, improving service levels and increasing sales (KJR Consulting, 2002). Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert embarked on the first CPFR pilot, involving Listerine products, in 1991. In their pilot, Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert used special CPFR software to exchange forecasts. Supportive data, such as past sales trends, promotion plans, and even the weather, were often transferred in an iterative fashion to allow them to converge on a single forecast in case their original forecast differed (Avin Y., 2001). As a result of CPFR implementation Warner-Lamberts service levels increased from 87% to 98%, while the lead times to deliver the product decreased from 21 to 11 days (Boone T. et.al, 2000).***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΆÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽ-ΜΆ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ÃƒÅ½Ã…“ÃŽ-ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ** Also this pilot was very successful, having as a result an increase in Listerine sales and better fill rates, having also a reduction on inventory investment (Avin Y., 2001). The key idea behind CPRF is that the trading partners (retailer and manufacturer), work together in order to produce a common forecast. Both the retailer and the manufacturer collect market intelligence on product information, store programs etc., and share it in real-time over the Internet. In most cases, the retailer owns the sales forecast; if the manufacturer agrees with the forecast, automatic replenishments are made to the retailer via predetermined business contracts so that a specific level of inventory or customer service is maintained (Boone T. et.al, 2000). In the case that the retailer and the manufacturer cant agree on the forecasts or if there are exceptions, such as unusual demand season or a store opening, the forecasts are reconciled manually. An important point is before the implementation of CPFR when the partners should agree on several key questions such as how to measure service levels and stock-out, how to set inventory and service targets (Boone T. et.al, 2000). The difference between CPFR and other business process tools and initiatives, such as Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), is that the other models require critical mass before any benefits are realized. Promotional plans and the business goals are the most famous areas of collaboration between the trading partners. After that order/replenishment plans, inventory status and sales forecast seems to be very critical themes for this relationship. 2.10.2.1 CPFR Process Model ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÅ ¾ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑН ΒΠ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢*** 2.10.2.2 CPFR Benefits There have been recorded and identified many benefits of CPFR. The CPFR documents that are available on the VICS Committee sites show that there is a 30%-40% improvement in forecast accuracy, significant increases in customer service, sales increase between 15% and 60% and reduction in days of supply 15%-20% (Sheffi Y., 2002). AMR Research (2001) reported a range of benefits that came through CPFR implementation in many companies and there are divided into retailer benefits and manufacturer benefits as it is shown in table 2.3. Retailer Benefits Typical Improvement Better store shelf stock rates 2% to 8% Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Higher sales 5% to 20% Lower logistics costs 3% to 4% Manufacturer Benefits Typical Improvement Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Faster replenishment cycles 12% to 30% Higher sales 2% to 10% Better customer service 5% to 10% Table 2.3: Typical CPFR Benefits Source: Sheffi Y.,(2002), The value of CPFR, RIRL Conference Proceedings As far as it concerns the retailers benefits the highest is the reduction in inventory levels which has a drop from 10% to 40%. After that the increase in sales from 5% to 20% is another essential benefit. On the other hand the manufacturers benefits relate again with a elimination in inventory levels from 10% to 40% and also it offers a faster replenishment cycles from 12% to 30%. In accordance with a questionnaire constructed by KJR Consulting and sent via e-mail to 130 GMA (Grocery Manufacturers of America) companies that have implement CPFR best practice a great range of benefits raised that can indicate the importance of CPRF for the modern complexity businesses. These benefits have been categorized in the following Figure 2.1. Figure 2.4: Anticipated Benefits of CPFR Sou

Essay --

‘Myths get thought in man unbeknowest to him’[1]; As a structuralist, Levi-Strauss ‘offers a number of important reinterpretations of the kinds of ideological thought and practice with ‘symbolic anthropology’, within his analysis of the four Winnebago myths, he sheds light on how change within myth reflects Winnebago society universally. Within each of these myths, the way one goes about living their life determines what happens to them after their life on earth comes to an end. Through using Levi- Strauss’ analysis of each of the four myths, I am going to demonstrate how spiritual change occurs within the Winnebago culture and ‘since structure is entirely relational [...] any content can only arise for us out of the form – the kinship, mythological, or social structures with which anthropology confronts us.’ Structuralism is in a way, attempting to ‘create codes by means of which to communicate.’ To be able to u nderstand our own culture it is simply ‘dialectic’, this is as it is content for our own society; yet when looking at ‘alien cultures it can only be structural – containing knowledge of- and, as such part of the subjectivity of our own society which communicates to us the objectivity of another.’ The chapter, which I am evaluating, is primarily based on myths collected by Radin whilst creating his ethnography of the Winnebago culture. Levi-Strauss chose myths that are all of the same belief but they differ slightly in their forms; the person experiences death but each form differs slightly in each myth, which further develops through the ability to renew lives through the act of heroic traits. Within the first myth, warriors die in battle defending their tribe. This highlights the concept of the capital of life... ...ve; that is ambivilant spirits combining good and evil features. So ends the myth.’ Levi-Strauss concludes that that this myth highlights the Winnebago believe that those who live extraordinary lives, yet have qualities that are negative, will neither live nor die.’ Through the use of cross analysis, Levi- Strauss was able to theorise how the people of the Winnebagos interpret and experience how the change affects the spirit of these people. In only pursuing the betterment of the group and not as an individual within the society you are rewarded by the spiritual world, which in turn affects the way in which the members of these tribes act; as they would be punished, which we see with the transformation from human to animal. He demonstrates how we can grasp a good source of information from the symbols that are represented within the culture. [1] Strauss, Levi,